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The Monday it all stops

Governments are paying for mineral supply that keeps flowing in a crisis, because China refines most critical minerals today. Here is what a crisis week could do to an Australian miner, and what the money means for you.

By Matthew Lonsdale · By-product research by CFO Labs publisher Model Answer · Facts as at 10 November 2026, rechecked 13 November

This page goes with the CFO Labs article. It holds the full scenario, the hit list with a source for every row, six considerations and a checklist for this quarter.

The scenario

Invented events, real laws and figures

Title card of the animated scenario, The Monday it all stops, over a dark map of the region — The scenario in 35 seconds, silent. Every beat is also written out below.

The events below are invented and stacked into one week on purpose, while the laws and figures are real. It’s a Monday morning in Perth. Open each hour to see what happens, what is already real, and what it hits.

OvernightChina’s coast guard starts inspecting ships bound for Taiwan

China’s coast guard starts stopping and inspecting ships bound for Taiwan, and calls it law enforcement. No shots are fired and no blockade is declared.

What’s real

On 31 October China’s coast guard announced what it called routine law-enforcement patrols east of Taiwan, and said it would keep stepping them up¹. Between 3 and 8 November, Taiwan’s National Security Council reported more than 100 Chinese navy and coast guard ships across the Western Pacific². No boarding of a merchant ship had been reported as at 10 November.

HitsTimelinesCash

6 amWar-risk cover is cancelled

War-risk insurers cancel cover for ships calling at Chinese and Taiwanese ports. Owners hold their ships in port or divert them. Your concentrate is somewhere on that water.

What’s real

Six of the world’s ten busiest container ports are in mainland China³. About a fifth of the world’s seaborne trade by value passes through the Taiwan Strait⁴.

HitsCashTimelines

9 amYour offtaker goes quiet

Your offtaker in China can’t confirm the next shipment, or when it will pay for the last one.

What’s real

China already decides by licence who can buy some minerals. It has required export licences for gallium and germanium since August 2023 and for antimony since September 2024. Its ban on selling all three to the United States is suspended only until 27 November⁵.

HitsCashProduction

11 amA national telco network goes down

A national telco network goes down, and parts of the grid with it. Sites without satellite backup lose voice, data and the link to their remote operations centre.

What’s real

In September, ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess told the Mitchell Unlimited podcast that China is preparing to turn off power and telecommunications networks in a conflict: “I believe in some cases they could do it today should they need to.” He said it would happen only if Australia were at war⁶. In June, ASIO revealed it had found state-backed hackers inside an Australian critical-infrastructure provider’s network, preparing for sabotage⁷. On 26 October the Australian Cyber Security Centre reported that state-sponsored actors routinely target Australia’s critical infrastructure⁸.

HitsOperationsProductionPeople

1 pmFuel is rationed

Fuel distributors start rationing diesel and petrol. Your supplier says deliveries will be cut, and it can’t say by how much. Explorers’ rigs stand idle and their camps run short.

What’s real

Australia imports about four-fifths of its refined fuel^{9, 10}. Counting crude oil and refined products, Taiwan supplied about 7 per cent of Australia’s fuel imports in 2025⁹. On 3 November federal figures showed 31 days of diesel, 28 days of jet fuel and 41 days of petrol on hand, with the National Fuel Security Plan at Level 2¹¹. Under the Liquid Fuel Emergency Act, Defence is an essential user and mining isn’t¹².

HitsProductionCash

3 pmThe lender and the board want answers

Your lender calls to ask about your covenants. Your board asks two questions: what happens next, and what did we know?

What’s real

No shipment means no payment, while costs keep running. Fuel is already dear: in the week to 4 November, Singapore diesel averaged US$170 a barrel, 91 per cent above its pre-war level¹¹. A listed company must also tell the market promptly about anything a reasonable person would expect to move its share price⁶⁸.

HitsCash

WednesdayFIFO stops

Defence and the national response get first call on jet fuel and charter aircraft. Your Perth-to-site charter never leaves WA, and the next FIFO crew can’t fly in.

What’s real

The Defence Act lets an authorised officer require aircraft and goods for defence purposes, with payment. Fuel counts as goods¹³. Federal fuel priority covers fuel for ships and aircraft in interstate and international trade¹². A closed FIFO charter inside one state is unlikely to count as public transport, though that hasn’t been tested. On 3 November Australia held 28 days of jet fuel¹¹.

HitsPeopleOperations

FridayWA decides who gets the fuel

The WA government uses its Fuel, Energy and Power Resources Act to decide who gets the fuel, including the diesel in your own tanks.

What’s real

WA declared a fuel state of emergency from 1 April 2026 over the Middle East war and has renewed it to 29 March 2027, using only its information powers so far^{14, 17}. The Act works by direction: its emergency regulations can provide for the state to administer fuel holdings, ration supply and allocate fuel to priority users¹⁴. Since May 2026, compensation under the Act is at the minister’s discretion, and none is paid for losses from rationing or supply limits¹⁵. Separately, in a declared state of emergency an officer can take and use fuel under WA’s Emergency Management Act, and that Act’s compensation section doesn’t list this power¹⁶.

HitsProductionCashOperations

Why governments are paying

Governments are funding critical minerals for a reason the price charts don’t show. Fastmarkets’ European antimony price fell by more than two-thirds, from a record of about US$59,750 a tonne in mid-2025 to US$18,300 to US$19,000 on 14 October 2026, and the money kept coming²¹. A crisis turns any single source of supply into a lever, and China holds most of those levers.

Who the money is for

The scenario would hit every miner, gold producers included. Government money is narrower, aimed mostly at processing minerals on the national Critical Minerals List. The list has 31 minerals, among them lithium, rare earths, antimony, tungsten and tantalum. Zinc, copper, tin, aluminium and phosphorus sit on a separate Strategic Materials List²³.

Where China sits

In its 2025 outlook the International Energy Agency found China was the top refiner of 19 of the 20 strategic minerals it analysed, with an average share of about 70 per cent. Its 2026 outlook finds China is the leading supplier of almost all strategic minor minerals²⁴.
The US Geological Survey says China produced 99 per cent of the world’s primary gallium in 2025²². The International Energy Agency says China made more than 80 per cent of the world’s battery cells²⁵.
China has required export licences for gallium and germanium since August 2023 and antimony since September 2024. Its December 2024 ban on selling all three to the United States is suspended only until 27 November 2026. On 9 November it extended a separate pause on its October 2025 controls to 10 January 2027, and said nothing about 27 November⁵.

The F-35 test

Defence buyers ask where a material has been, and who could have touched it on the way, before they ask the price. At the end of August 2022 the Pentagon stopped accepting new F-35s, for more than a month, after finding that a magnet in a Honeywell-made pump used a samarium-cobalt alloy from China. It announced the halt on 7 September and said the magnet posed no safety or security risk. US procurement rules don’t allow specialty metals from China in American weapons, so deliveries resumed only after the Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer signed a national security waiver for 126 jets on 8 October. Honeywell moved to a new source for the alloy²⁶. Nothing had failed. One input, deep in the supply chain, came from the wrong country.

The rules

Current US law: From 1 January 2027 the Pentagon can’t award new contracts for rare-earth magnets, tungsten, tantalum or molybdenum mined, refined or separated in China, Russia, North Korea or Iran. Gallium and germanium join on 18 December 2027. Molybdenum is in the statute. The defence procurement rules for it are still being drafted²⁷.
The defence bill: Congress is rewriting the rule in the FY2027 defence bill, expected to pass in December²⁸. The House version would repeal the January rule and replace it with a tiered test. Its first tier covers rare-earth magnets, oxides and concentrates, tungsten powder and alloys, and tantalum from ore to metal. For that tier, at least half the cost would have to come from companies organised in the United States and controlled by US persons. Molybdenum, gallium and germanium would join the tier on 18 December 2027, and a 12-month fast track would qualify new domestic and allied sources. The Senate version keeps the January rule and moves molybdenum to December 2027²⁸. For an Australian supplier, the final text will decide whether being an ally is enough.
The executive order: Executive Order 14415 was signed on 20 July. It requires guidance by about mid-January 2027 for defence contractors to map critical supply chains from raw material to end product, with regulations about 90 days later. The rules must include a full bill of materials traced to the origin of raw materials, supplier vetting for foreign ownership, control and influence, and a ban on covered material from unreliable foreign suppliers. The order doesn’t restrict minerals from foreign projects backed by EXIM or the US International Development Finance Corporation. Nor does it restrict minerals from companies supported by the US departments of State, War, Commerce or Energy²⁹.

The money

In July 2025 the Pentagon took a US$400 million stake in MP Materials, set a floor of US$110 a kilogram under its main rare-earth product to the end of 2035, and agreed to buy its new magnet plant’s output for 10 years³⁰.
In October 2025 Australia and the United States each agreed to provide at least US$1 billion within six months to a US$8.5 billion pipeline of projects. On 27 October 2026 Austrade counted more than A$6 billion of conditional finance across more than a dozen projects³¹.
Japan has backed Lynas since 2011 through Japan Australia Rare Earths (JARE), owned by trading house Sojitz and the state agency JOGMEC. The first deal was US$250 million of loans and equity, for at least 8,500 tonnes of rare earth products a year over ten years. On 10 March 2026 the agreement was revised to run to 2038. JARE committed to buy 5,000 tonnes of NdPr a year, with a US$110 a kilogram floor on NdPr sold to Japanese industry, and the equivalent of half of Lynas’s heavy rare earth oxides³². A floor like this underwrites the price, and it matters most when prices fall, as antimony’s did.
Separately, on 16 March 2026 Lynas signed a binding letter of intent with the US Department of War for about US$96 million of rare earth oxides over four years, with the same US$110 floor on NdPr³³.

Policy risk

Laws and long contracts are harder to undo than executive orders, but programs can still change. The federal Opposition’s costed savings plan of 26 October 2026 includes ending the critical-minerals tax credits³⁵. A new US Congress sits from 3 January 2027³⁶.

When support doesn’t arrive, projects stall. In the energy transition, BP cancelled its 100 MW H2Kwinana hydrogen project near Perth in June 2026 after missing out on the federal Hydrogen Headstart program. BP said the project depended on that funding (Reported). A year earlier BP had left the Pilbara’s Australian Renewable Energy Hub, planned for up to 26 GW of wind and solar, where it held 63.57 per cent and was operator (Reported)³⁴.

The hit list

No federal grant round for critical minerals is open as at 10 November 2026. The support is finance, government buying, a tax incentive from July 2027 and access to allied buyers.

Program	On offer	What it asks of you	The catch	Status, 10 Nov 2026	Sources
Commonwealth
Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive	A refundable tax offset of 10% of eligible processing and refining costs, uncapped, for up to 10 years per registered activity, for income years 2027-28 to 2039-40	A registered processing activity in Australia that chemically turns feedstock containing a mineral on the Critical Minerals List into a purer form. The list has 31 minerals, lithium among them. Existing plants, and tailings or waste-stream feedstock, can qualify. Regulations add high-purity alumina, graphite and precursor cathode material	Mining, crushing, grinding and flotation don’t count, and nor do capital, financing or feedstock costs. Incidental by-products don’t qualify. Zinc, copper and other minerals on the Strategic Materials List aren’t covered. The cash comes through the tax return once you are producing	Registration opens 1 July 2027	^{46, 23, 45}
Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve	The Commonwealth as a buyer, with about A$1.2 billion in all: A$1 billion for offtakes, forward contracts, aggregation and contracts for difference, drawn from Export Finance Australia’s facility, plus A$185 million for stockpiling and running costs (the department puts stockpiling at A$150 million)	A project extracting or processing in Australia, in its initial minerals: antimony, gallium and the rare earths neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium. A pre-feasibility study done or nearly done, and a need for at least A$20 million of funding, financing or offtake support	No binding critical-minerals purchase yet. The first commitment, 500 tonnes from Arafura’s Nolans project (21 May 2026), is non-binding. So far EFA has used the reserve’s powers to secure fuel and fertiliser	Open: proposals at any time	⁴⁷
Export Finance Australia, Critical Minerals Facility	Loans, bonds, guarantees, insurance and sometimes equity from A$5 billion	A mineral in the national strategy or eligible for the reserve, Australian benefit, a completed feasibility study, an offtake commitment, proven technology and a capable proponent	Approvals are conditional, and there are no grants. On 27 October EFA conditionally approved up to A$70 million for Astron’s Donald project, from its Commercial Account, and a US$41.4 million loan to Global Advanced Metals for tantalum	Ongoing	^{48, 42, 50}
National Reconstruction Fund	Debt, equity and guarantees from A$15 billion, with a A$1 billion target for value-adding in resources	Returns set by its mandate. The general portfolio targets 2 to 3 percentage points above the five-year bond rate	No grants, and concessional terms only where justified. Up to A$110 million of senior debt for Donald (27 October), subject to due diligence, commercial lenders taking the balance and final approvals	Ongoing. Donald’s investment decision is expected by the end of 2026	^{49, 50}
Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility	Concessional loans for infrastructure in northern Australia from A$7 billion; up to A$835 million committed to five critical-minerals projects by 30 June 2026	A project in northern Australia with public benefit	Infrastructure only, and approvals are conditional	Ongoing. Its investment window now runs to 30 June 2036	^{51, 41}
Federal grant programs	None open for critical minerals	Not applicable	International Partnerships in Critical Minerals and the Critical Minerals Development Program are closed, and the Industry Growth Program is paused to new applications	Closed or paused	⁵²
Major Project Status	Help with Commonwealth approvals, usually for three years	A nationally significant project worth more than A$50 million	No money and no approval	Open at any time	⁵²
Critical Minerals List review	A say in what counts as critical	A submission against four criteria: importance to technology, the economy and national security; Australia’s geological potential; demand from strategic partners; and exposure to supply disruption	Listing brings no support by itself, and a newly listed mineral isn’t automatically eligible for the tax incentive	Closes at 5 pm AEDT on Tuesday 17 November 2026	^{53, 46}
States
Queensland Critical Minerals Fund	A$250 million of equity, debt or hybrid finance, managed by QIC	A Queensland critical-minerals project	No grants. An older state page still describes a A$170 million fund	Operating	⁵⁷
Queensland Resources Common User Facility, Townsville	A government-owned pilot plant that companies can hire to prove a process	Access is agreed case by case	Its first customer is a vanadium developer	Opened 23 October 2026	⁵⁷
NSW Critical Minerals Royalty Deferral Scheme	Defer royalties for up to five years, up to A$250 million in total across the scheme	A critical-minerals mining lease, held by a company worth less than A$5 billion	Interest is charged on deferred royalties	Open since 1 July 2025	⁵⁸
Western Australia	A A$500 million Strategic Industries Fund for processing hubs, led by the state	Not an application program	No open critical-minerals grant round. The Investment Attraction Fund is closed	Closed to applications	⁵⁹
United States
EXIM	Non-binding letters of interest worth more than US$2.2 billion to seven Australian projects in October 2025: Arafura, Northern Minerals, Graphinex, La Trobe Magnesium, VHM, RZ Resources and Sunrise Energy Metals. Supply-chain loans	Long-term offtake with US buyers and no Chinese control. Loan size follows the US share of offtake	A letter of interest isn’t a loan. EXIM can approve new deals only until 31 December 2026 unless Congress renews its charter, and no renewal had passed by 10 November	A short-term extension in the post-election session is the likeliest outcome (Reported). ASM’s US$600 million letter for its Dubbo project, from March 2024, is separate from the October 2025 tranche	^{60, 56, 36}
Office of Strategic Capital and DFC	Office of Strategic Capital loans, such as a conditional offer of up to US$400 million for Sunrise’s Syerston scandium project in NSW. The DFC may now finance projects in high-income countries such as Australia	For the DFC, a certification and no more than 25 per cent of project cost	Offers are conditional	Sunrise took its investment decision on 2 November 2026	^{61, 62}
US defence supply chains	A place in Pentagon supply chains. The July executive order doesn’t restrict minerals from foreign projects backed by EXIM, the DFC or the US departments of State, War, Commerce or Energy	Material not mined, refined or separated in China, Russia, North Korea or Iran, and a supply chain traced to the raw material	Congress is rewriting the rule. The House version wants at least half the cost of key materials from US-owned producers	The rule applies to new contracts from 1 January 2027 under current law	^{27, 28, 29}

Capacity and cash

The headline figures are capacity more than cash. The national strategy update counts about A$3.1 billion committed by Export Finance Australia to five critical-minerals projects by June 2026, up to A$835 million from NAIF across five projects, A$325 million announced by the National Reconstruction Fund and more than A$300 million from the CEFC⁴¹. The Strategic Reserve’s A$1 billion for deals sits inside the A$5 billion Critical Minerals Facility, so the two figures overlap⁴⁷.

Across four projects outside WA (Arafura, Alpha HPA, Renascor and VHM), approved Commonwealth loans come to about A$1.4 billion. Only Alpha HPA’s A$400 million had been signed by October 2026, and none had been drawn by 30 September. Alpha HPA began its first drawdown in November. Counting equity, convertible notes and VHM’s non-binding letter as well, support for the four comes to nearer A$1.9 billion⁵⁵.

Government price floors and offtake volumes are covered in a separate article in this issue of CFO Labs.

Where by-products pay

This section draws on research by CFO Labs publisher Model Answer, position as at 13 October 2026, updated where marked³⁷.

A by-product is a minor second product recovered while making a main one. The cheapest gains are mostly at smelters and refineries, where critical minerals already pass through process streams and residues. The Critical Minerals Strategy update of 27 October points there, where recovery is commercially viable⁴¹.

Who sells one today

In October, Model Answer’s research found seven Australian operations selling a critical mineral as a by-product³⁷.

Operation	By-product	What’s known
Port Pirie lead smelter, SA (Nyrstar)	Antimony from lead refinery streams	First shipment announced 17 February 2026. The only by-product circuit added to an existing Australian plant since China’s controls began in 2023. A A$105 million government package supports the smelters through 2026^{37, 38}
Pilgangoora, WA (PLS, formerly Pilbara Minerals)	Tantalite concentrate from the lithium plant	A$20.8 million of by-product income in FY26, about 1.1 per cent of revenue, credited against costs³⁷
Greenbushes, WA	Tantalum and tin concentrate from the lithium plants	Owned and taken by Global Advanced Metals under a 2009 agreement, so the mine’s owners don’t sell it³⁷
Kathleen Valley, WA (Liontown)	Tantalite concentrate from the lithium plant	925 dry tonnes produced in FY26³⁷
Murrin Murrin, WA (Glencore)	Cobalt from the nickel refinery	1.2 thousand tonnes in the first half of 2026; the operation was fully written down³⁷
Cadia, NSW (Newmont)	Molybdenum concentrate from the copper-gold plant	Plant commissioned in 2022³⁷
Tronox mineral sands, WA and NSW	Raw monazite, a rare-earth mineral	No tonnes or revenue published³⁷

Being built, or just starting

Wagerup, WA (Alcoa). Gallium from about 10 per cent of an alumina refinery’s process liquor, with no extra bauxite mined, and 100 tonnes a year planned. Alcoa’s total expected contribution is US$24 million, and its chief executive has described the project as largely funded by the governments of Australia, Japan and the United States (Reported)³⁷. The US Department of War announced an estimated US$174 million of equity. Australia committed up to US$200 million with a right to buy some output. Japan’s Sojitz and JOGMEC are partners, with Sojitz as offtaker. The investment decision came in July 2026, and no start date has been published³⁹.
Eneabba, WA (Iluka). A rare-earths refinery fed by a stockpile of mineral sands by-products, backed by a A$1.65 billion Export Finance Australia loan, with commissioning expected in 2027³⁷.
Hillgrove, NSW (Larvotto). Antimony is a main product here. First concentrate came in September 2026, and the first 68 tonnes shipped in October⁴⁰.

On 27 October Export Finance Australia also conditionally approved a US$41.4 million loan to Global Advanced Metals to support its tantalum production⁴².

Where to start

Miners. Find out which minor metals report to your concentrate, and whether your offtake terms pay for them, ignore them or penalise them.
Explorers. Where tungsten, tantalum or rare earths matter, re-assay core and pulps with a fusion method. A standard four-acid digest under-recovers tantalum, niobium, zirconium and other elements held in resistant minerals⁴³. Acid digests also struggle to dissolve tungsten minerals completely⁴⁴.
Plants with a suitable stream. Bring in a funded partner to build the circuit, as Alcoa did at Wagerup, and check who holds the by-product rights in your agreements. At Greenbushes, another company owns the tantalum^{39, 37}.

The tax incentive’s by-product test

The production tax incentive counts a by-product only if recovering it is a substantial purpose of the processing, and it need not be the main purpose. A mineral that comes out incidentally, as arsenic does in gold processing, doesn’t qualify. Costs are apportioned where a plant makes other valuable products. No official guidance yet covers gallium from alumina-refinery liquor or antimony from lead smelting^{45, 46}.

Eight questions before you chase a by-product

Adapted from research by CFO Labs publisher Model Answer³⁷.

Grade and volume. How many tonnes a year can the stream give, and how large is that beside the world market? Australia’s first gallium plant was built at Pinjarra for 50 tonnes a year when the world used about 30. It shut twice when the market turned.
Recovery. How much of the metal ends up in product, proven above laboratory scale?
Capital cost. What does the added plant cost, and how far have budgets for similar plants moved?
Product qualification. Has a named buyer accepted the product at the purity it needs?
Offtake. Who has signed to buy, on what price terms, and is the contract binding?
Time to delivery. How long until the first sale, and could the price turn before then?
The processing step. Who owns the plant and the mineral rights where the by-product separates?
The host. Would the operation survive on its main product alone?

Six considerations

Each of these would hit production, project timelines and operations. The first impact is rarely the one that hurts. The follow-on impacts do, and most of them can be measured now. Choose an impact to see it across all six.

1Fuel

Australia imports about four-fifths of its refined fuel, and on 3 November held 31 days of diesel and 28 days of jet fuel^{10, 11}. Mining isn’t an essential user under federal fuel law¹². In a WA fuel emergency the state can direct how fuel holdings are used and who gets them, a mine’s own tanks included. Since May, compensation under that law is at the minister’s discretion, with none for losses from rationing^{14, 15}. The Defence Act lets the Commonwealth require civil aircraft and fuel for defence, with payment¹³.

Production: Haul trucks, loaders and diesel generators slow or stop. Blasting stops too, because the standard ANFO explosive is ammonium nitrate mixed with fuel oil, usually diesel. Explorers’ rigs stand idle.
Timelines: Drilling and construction contractors run dry first, so development milestones slip.
People: FIFO runs on jet fuel and charter aircraft, and Defence can call on both. The next crew can’t fly in, the crew on site can’t fly out, and fatigue becomes a safety issue.
Operations: Reagents, grinding media, cyanide, tyres and camp food can stop a site before diesel does. Sites run short-handed or hold crews past their roster, until camp beds, fatigue limits and workplace agreements run out.
Cash: Fuel prices rise just as volumes fall, so unit costs climb from both ends. Singapore diesel was already 91 per cent above its pre-war level in the week to 4 November¹¹.

What a prepared company does

Knows its days of diesel at full and essential-only burn, and has agreed with its supplier how it would rank in a shortage. Its FIFO plan, agreed with its workforce, covers longer rosters and road transport. It records what it does to cut fuel use, because WA’s minister can weigh mitigation when deciding compensation¹⁵.

Measure now

Days of diesel on site at full and essential-only burn (litres held divided by litres used a day). Days of reagents, grinding media, cyanide, tyres, food and concentrate storage, and what holding more of each costs. Your supplier’s allocation terms in a shortage. Which FIFO flights stay inside the state, and what your charter contract says if the government needs the aircraft.

2Shipping and ports

About a fifth of the world’s seaborne trade by value passes through the Taiwan Strait⁴. The International Energy Agency says the Strait of Hormuz carried about half its usual oil in September. October was similar, and Suez traffic was still 36 per cent below pre-crisis levels in late October^{18, 19, 20}.

Production: When concentrate can’t ship, stockpiles fill. When storage runs out, the mill slows.
Timelines: Spares, reagents and new equipment arrive late, so shutdowns run long and projects slip.
Operations: War-risk premiums, rerouting and port delays push freight costs up.
Cash: No shipment, no payment. Revenue is deferred while costs keep running, and working capital and covenants come under pressure.

What a prepared company does

Knows its days of storage at site and at port, and has a second port or route agreed. It holds critical spares and reagents with a single overseas source ahead of need.

Measure now

Days of storage at site and at port. The share of sales by destination country. Which critical spares and reagents have a single overseas source, and their lead times.

3Your buyers and the rules

Under current US law, from 1 January 2027 material mined, refined or separated in China can’t go into new Pentagon contracts for the covered materials, and Congress is rewriting the rule^{27, 28}. Most of the support in the hit list goes to supply that can be traced and trusted.

Production: If your only buyer is in China and stops taking delivery, your output has nowhere to go.
Timelines: A new buyer has to accept your product at its specification before it pays. The House version of the US defence bill would set a 12-month fast track for new domestic and allied sources²⁸.
Operations: Product refined in China can’t enter a US defence supply chain, whatever its grade.
Cash: Buyers who pay a premium for secure supply want traceability first. Without it, you take the market price.

What a prepared company does

Has a second buyer outside China lined up, knows where its product is refined, and has read its offtake’s sanctions and force majeure clauses.

Measure now

The share of revenue from one buyer and from one country. Where your product is refined. Which buyers outside China could take it. What your offtake says about sanctions and force majeure.

4Power, telecoms and cyber

In June, ASIO revealed it had found state-backed hackers inside an Australian critical-infrastructure provider’s network, preparing for sabotage⁷. The Australian Cyber Security Centre’s annual report, published on 26 October, says state-sponsored actors routinely target Australia’s critical infrastructure⁸.

Production: Grid-connected processing stops. Off-grid sites fall back on the fuel question above.
Operations: Remote operations centres and autonomous fleets depend on the links an outage cuts, so they stop or revert to manual. A site’s own systems can keep running if they don’t depend on head office.
Timelines: A safe restart after a cyber incident waits until the control systems are proven clean, and that can take days or weeks.
People: Sites without satellite backup lose voice and data at the moment decisions matter most.

What a prepared company does

Has a satellite link and a tested manual fallback at each site, and keeps its operational technology separate from the office network.

Measure now

Which sites rely on the grid or a single telco link. Whether you have a satellite link and a manual fallback, and when you last tested them. How your operational technology is separated from the office network.

5Partners and host governments

The DRC revoked AVZ Minerals’ Manono lithium permit in 2023, and part of the deposit went to China’s Zijin. Zijin began exporting from Manono in July 2026. AVZ’s arbitration continues, with a hearing set for May 2027⁶³. Perth’s Resolute Mining paid US$160 million in 2024 after its chief executive was detained in Mali⁶⁴. Ghana declined to renew Gold Fields’ Damang lease in 2025, allowed a one-year transition, and in April 2026 handed the mine to a local company⁶⁵.

Assets: A licence can go, along with the infrastructure you built to use it.
Timelines: Arbitration takes years.
Cash: Settlements, write-downs and dearer funding follow.
Positioning: Defence checks its suppliers’ foreign ownership, control and influence through the Defence Industry Security Program, and US lenders and the Treasurer ask similar questions^{66, 60, 54}.

What a prepared company does

Knows who ultimately owns its offtakers, investors, partners and contractors. It keeps its exposure to countries that have taken back licences in proportion to what it can afford to lose.

Measure now

Who ultimately owns your offtakers, investors, partners and contractors. Your exposure to countries that have recently taken back licences.

6Warning signs

The United States ordered embassy families out of Kyiv on 23 January 2022, a month before Russia invaded. In June 2025 it ordered non-emergency staff out of Iraq two days before Israel struck Iran⁶⁷. China’s suspension of its gallium, germanium and antimony ban on the United States ends on 27 November unless it is extended⁵.

Timelines: With a month’s warning you can bring fuel and spares forward, ship early and move crews. With two days’ warning you can’t.
Operations: Decisions made in advance take minutes on the day. Decisions left to the day take the day.

What a prepared company does

Keeps a short watch list with a trigger, an action and an owner for each sign. The board has signed off the actions and what it would tell the market in advance.

Measure now

A short list of indicators. For each, the trigger, the action it sets off, who decides and what you would disclose.

Two companies, same Monday

Planning ahead lets a company take its decisions before the day. Only responding leaves it with more risk and more losses.

	Unprepared	Prepared
Warning	Hears about the crisis from the news	Its watch list caught the signs weeks earlier, and its triggers were agreed
Fuel and supplies	Has never counted its days, so finds out by running out	Knows its days of fuel, reagents and spares, and brought them forward
Crews	Its next FIFO crew is stuck in Perth	Its plan, agreed with its workforce, covers longer rosters and road transport
Finance	Its lender asks about covenants, and it has no answer	It has tested covenants and liquidity against 60 days without shipments or payment
Buyers	Its only buyer is in China, and its concentrate is refined there	A second buyer outside China is lined up
Owners	Nobody has checked who owns its offtaker	Ownership is checked across offtakers, investors and partners
Funding	Doesn’t know what the hit list would ask of it	Knows which items it qualifies for and what each would ask
Systems	Loses voice and data at site	A satellite link and manual fallbacks keep the sites running
Board	Meets with no options in front of it, and the lender sets the terms	Agreed its decisions, and what it would tell the market, in advance
Where it ends up	Carries more risk and more losses	Its product can be traced to the mine and is refined outside the restricted countries, as US defence buyers will require from January

Dates to watch

17 Nov 2026Critical Minerals List submissions close at 5 pm AEDT⁵³
18 to 19 NovAPEC leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen, where the US and Chinese presidents are due to meet (Reported)⁶⁹
27 NovChina’s suspension of its gallium, germanium and antimony ban on the United States ends, unless extended⁵
DecemberThe US defence bill rewriting the January rule is expected to pass²⁸
31 DecEXIM’s authority to approve new deals lapses unless Congress renews it⁶⁰
1 Jan 2027The US mined, refined or separated rule applies to new Pentagon contracts under current law²⁷
3 Jan 2027The new US Congress takes its seats³⁶
10 Jan 2027China’s pause on its October 2025 controls, and the wider US-China truce, run to this date⁵
Mid-Jan 2027Pentagon supply-chain mapping guidance is due under Executive Order 14415²⁹
29 Mar 2027WA’s renewed fuel emergency order ends unless renewed again¹⁴
1 Jul 2027Registration opens for the Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive⁴⁶
18 Dec 2027Gallium and germanium join the US rule under current law²⁷

Sources

Every figure on this page and in the article was checked between 10 and 13 November 2026. Confirmed means read in a primary source: legislation, an official dataset or a company filing. Reported means read in credible press or a secondary source. Research marks work by CFO Labs publisher Model Answer.

Three operational points rest on general industry knowledge rather than a checked source: that the standard ANFO explosive uses diesel, that remote operations centres and autonomous fleets depend on network links, and that a safe restart after a cyber incident can take days or weeks.

The scenario

ReportedReuters, “China’s coast guard conducts patrols east of Taiwan”, 31 Oct 2026. reuters.com
ReportedTaiwan News, report of Taiwan’s National Security Council on Chinese navy and coast guard deployments, 4 Nov 2026. taiwannews.com.tw
ReportedLloyd’s List, One Hundred Container Ports 2026, 28 Aug 2026. lloydslist.com
ReportedCSIS, Troubled Straits (Taiwan Strait share of maritime trade by value, 2024 data), 1 Jul 2026. csis.org
ConfirmedChina’s Ministry of Commerce: Announcements No. 23 of 2023 (gallium and germanium licences), No. 33 of 2024 (antimony), No. 72 of 2025 (US ban suspended to 27 Nov 2026) and No. 58 of 2026 (9 Nov 2026, other controls paused to 10 Jan 2027); Reuters, 9 Nov 2026. mofcom.gov.cn (No. 72), mofcom.gov.cn (No. 58), reuters.com
ReportedABC News Top Stories, “How China could hack our power and telco networks ‘today’”, 18 Sep 2026, on ASIO Director-General Mike Burgess’s interview on Mitchell Unlimited, 17 Sep 2026. abc.net.au
ConfirmedASIO, Director-General’s Annual Threat Assessment 2026, 24 Jun 2026. asio.gov.au
ConfirmedAustralian Cyber Security Centre (ASD), Annual Cyber Threat Report 2025-26, 26 Oct 2026. cyber.gov.au
ConfirmedParliamentary Library, “Australia’s liquid fuel security: Budget update”, 5 Jun 2026. aph.gov.au
ConfirmedDepartment of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Australian Energy Update 2026 (80.8 per cent of refined fuel use imported in 2024-25), 25 Sep 2026. energy.gov.au
ConfirmedAustralian Government, fuelplan.gov.au, “Fuel statistics”: stocks as at 3 Nov 2026 and ACCC price data published 6 Nov 2026; National Fuel Security Plan level. fuelplan.gov.au
ConfirmedLiquid Fuel Emergency Act 1984 (Cth) s 11 (Compilation No. 17) and the Essential Users Determination 2019 (F2019L00436); DCCEEW, “The Liquid Fuel Emergency Act 1984”, updated 9 Sep 2026. legislation.gov.au (Act), legislation.gov.au (Determination)
ConfirmedDefence Act 1903 (Cth) s 67, Compilation No. 88, 29 Sep 2026. legislation.gov.au
ConfirmedFuel, Energy and Power Resources Act 1972 (WA) ss 43 and 47; Fuel State of Emergency Declaration Order (No. 2) 2026, made 16 Sep 2026, in force 30 Sep 2026 to 29 Mar 2027; WA Government, “Fuel security: Government actions and latest updates”, updated 23 Oct 2026. legislation.wa.gov.au, wa.gov.au
ConfirmedFuel, Energy and Power Resources Amendment Act 2026 (WA), No. 4 of 2026, s 9 (new ss 56 to 56E on compensation), assent 18 May 2026. legislation.wa.gov.au, austlii.edu.au
ConfirmedEmergency Management Act 2005 (WA) ss 69, 75(1)(h) and 78. legislation.wa.gov.au
ReportedHerbert Smith Freehills Kramer, “Fuel supply disruption: WA state of emergency”, 7 Apr 2026. hsfkramer.com
ConfirmedInternational Energy Agency, Oil Market Report, October 2026, 14 Oct 2026. iea.org
ReportedCNBC, using Kpler and International Maritime Organization data, on Hormuz flows and attacks in October, 30 Oct 2026. cnbc.com
ReportedLloyd’s List Intelligence, Red Sea Brief, 29 Oct 2026. lloydslistintelligence.com

Why governments are paying

ConfirmedFastmarkets, “Europe’s antimony market faces uncertainty after years of volatility”, 15 Oct 2026 (Rotterdam warehouse price, 14 Oct 2026, and the mid-2025 record). fastmarkets.com
ConfirmedUS Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: gallium and antimony, Feb 2026. pubs.usgs.gov (gallium), pubs.usgs.gov (antimony)
ConfirmedDepartment of Industry, Science and Resources, “Australia’s Critical Minerals List and Strategic Materials List”, updated 20 Feb 2024 (31 critical minerals, lithium among them; zinc, copper, tin, aluminium and phosphorus on the Strategic Materials List). industry.gov.au
ConfirmedInternational Energy Agency, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 (May 2025) and 2026 (16 Jul 2026). iea.org (2025), iea.org (2026)
ConfirmedInternational Energy Agency, Global EV Outlook 2026, May 2026. iea.org
ReportedF-35 magnet: Defense News, 7 Sep 2022; Reuters, 8 Oct 2022; Breaking Defense, Oct 2022; Air & Space Forces Magazine, 11 Oct 2022. defensenews.com, reuters.com, breakingdefense.com, airandspaceforces.com
Confirmed10 U.S.C. 4872, as amended to Pub. L. 119-60 (18 Dec 2025); DFARS class deviation 2026-O0041 Rev 1 (in force 1 Jul 2026); Defense Acquisition Regulations System, open DFARS cases, 6 Nov 2026. law.cornell.edu, acq.osd.mil (deviation), acq.osd.mil (open cases)
ConfirmedH.R. 8800, FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act as passed by the House, 22 Jul 2026, s 1803; S. 4784 as reported, 15 Jun 2026, s 816 (bill texts: Confirmed). Expected timing: BGR Group, “Lame Duck Preview”, 4 Nov 2026 (Reported). govinfo.gov (House), govinfo.gov (Senate), bgrdc.com
ConfirmedExecutive Order 14415, “Securing America’s Defense Supply Chains and Ensuring Domestic Acquisition of Critical Materials”, signed 20 Jul 2026, Federal Register 23 Jul 2026. federalregister.gov
ConfirmedMP Materials, partnership with the Department of Defense, 10 Jul 2025; Form 10-Q for the September 2026 quarter, 6 Nov 2026. mpmaterials.com, sec.gov
ConfirmedPrime Minister of Australia, US-Australia critical minerals framework, 21 Oct 2025; Austrade, partnership marks first year of delivery, 27 Oct 2026. pm.gov.au, austrade.gov.au
ConfirmedLynas Rare Earths, ASX release on the revised Japan Australia Rare Earths (JARE) agreement, 10 Mar 2026; Sojitz, 13 Mar 2026; JOGMEC, on the original JARE financing, 30 Mar 2011. asx.com.au, sojitz.com, jogmec.go.jp
ConfirmedLynas Rare Earths, ASX release on its binding letter of intent with the US Department of War, 16 Mar 2026. afr.com (ASX copy)
ReportedArgus, on BP dropping H2Kwinana after missing out on funding, 24 Jun 2026 (Reported); ARENA, Hydrogen Headstart round 1 awards, 4 Jul 2025, and round 2 shortlist, 13 May 2026; BP, H2Kwinana engineering milestone (100 MW), 17 Nov 2023; Reuters, on BP leaving the Australian Renewable Energy Hub, 24 Jul 2025 (Reported); BP, on joining the hub as operator, 15 Jun 2022. argusmedia.com, arena.gov.au (round 1), arena.gov.au (round 2), bp.com (2023), reuters.com, bp.com (2022)
ReportedABC News, “Coalition says cuts to climate, housing and more would save $31 billion”, 26 Oct 2026. abc.net.au
ReportedRystad Energy, on the 3 Nov 2026 US elections and the outlook for EXIM renewal, 6 Nov 2026. rystadenergy.com

By-products

ResearchModel Answer, publisher of CFO Labs, By-product critical minerals: what the evidence says and the accompanying project list, position as at 13 Oct 2026, from company and government documents. Not published online.
ConfirmedAustralian, South Australian and Tasmanian governments, joint release on the A$105 million Nyrstar package, 10 Jun 2026. minister.industry.gov.au
ConfirmedAlcoa, final investment decision release, 14 Jul 2026, and Form 10-Q, 29 Oct 2026; US Department of War, gallium investment release, 31 Aug 2026 (an estimate that moves with the exchange rate); Sojitz, 15 Jul 2026. alcoa.com, sec.gov, war.gov, sojitz.com
ConfirmedLarvotto Resources, September 2026 quarterly report, 30 Oct 2026; Mining Weekly, 14 Oct 2026. larvottoresources.com, miningweekly.com
ConfirmedDepartment of Industry, Science and Resources, Critical Minerals Strategy 2023-2030: 2026 update, 27 Oct 2026. industry.gov.au
ConfirmedExport Finance Australia and ministers, “More investment, more jobs for Australia’s critical minerals future” (Donald project and Global Advanced Metals), 27 Oct 2026. exportfinance.gov.au
ConfirmedGeochemistry: Exploration, Environment, Analysis, “Comparison of lithium borate fusion and four-acid digestions for the determination of whole-rock chemistry: implications for lithogeochemistry and mineral exploration”, vol. 23, no. 2, 2023 (lower four-acid recoveries for Zr, Hf, Nb, Ta, Ti and Eu). geoscienceworld.org
ConfirmedGeochemistry: Exploration, Environment, Analysis, “Efficiency of acid digestion procedures for geochemical analysis of tungsten mining wastes”, 2021 (tungsten minerals form insoluble tungstic acid in regular acid digests). lyellcollection.org
ConfirmedExplanatory Memorandum, Future Made in Australia (Production Tax Credits and Other Measures) Bill 2024, paras 2.126 to 2.140 and 2.193. aph.gov.au

The hit list

ConfirmedATO, Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive (updated 3 Mar 2026); Department of Industry, Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive (updated 17 Aug 2026); Future Made in Australia (Production Tax Credits and Other Measures) Act 2025, Division 419. ato.gov.au, industry.gov.au, legislation.gov.au
ConfirmedDepartment of Industry, Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve (updated 23 Apr 2026); Export Finance Australia, “Delivering Australia’s critical minerals supply”, 12 Jan 2026, and “Strategic reserve supporting Arafura final investment decision”, 21 May 2026. industry.gov.au, exportfinance.gov.au (Jan), exportfinance.gov.au (May)
ConfirmedExport Finance Australia, critical minerals solutions page. exportfinance.gov.au
ConfirmedNational Reconstruction Fund Corporation, investment guidance (updated 14 Aug 2026); Investment Mandate Direction 2026, s 17 (F2026L00416). nrf.gov.au, legislation.gov.au
ConfirmedAstron, “Donald Project debt conditionally approved” (ASX), 27 Oct 2026; Energy Fuels, September quarter 2026 results, 4 Nov 2026. listcorp.com, energyfuels.com
ConfirmedNorthern Australia Infrastructure Facility Amendment Act 2026 (No. 60 of 2026, assent 30 Jun 2026); NAIF commitments as listed in the 2026 strategy update. aph.gov.au
Confirmedbusiness.gov.au program pages: International Partnerships in Critical Minerals, Critical Minerals Development Program, Industry Growth Program and Major Project Status. business.gov.au (IPCM), business.gov.au (CMDP), business.gov.au (IGP), business.gov.au (MPS)
ConfirmedDepartment of Industry consultation hub, Critical Minerals List and Strategic Materials List review 2026, opened 26 Oct 2026, closes 5 pm AEDT 17 Nov 2026. consult.industry.gov.au
ConfirmedTreasurer, “Foreign investors penalised for breach of Australian laws”, 30 Jan 2026; disposal orders F2026N00326, 17 May 2026; Treasury, Australia’s Foreign Investment Policy, May 2026; Prime Minister and Minister for Resources, press conference, 29 Oct 2026. treasury.gov.au, legislation.gov.au, foreigninvestment.gov.au, minister.industry.gov.au
ConfirmedProject finance for Arafura, Alpha HPA, Renascor and VHM: Export Finance Australia, 21 May 2026; NAIF project pages; National Reconstruction Fund, 29 Jan 2026; company ASX releases, including Alpha HPA, 17 Dec 2024 and 2 Nov 2026, and the September 2026 quarterly reports of Arafura, Renascor and VHM. exportfinance.gov.au, naif.gov.au (Arafura), naif.gov.au (Alpha HPA), nrf.gov.au, alphahpa.com.au, listcorp.com (Alpha HPA drawdown), listcorp.com (Arafura), listcorp.com (Renascor), listcorp.com (VHM)
ConfirmedEXIM, seven letters of interest totalling more than US$2.2 billion for Australian projects, 20 Oct 2025; Australian Strategic Materials, US$600 million letter of interest for the Dubbo project, 21 Mar 2024. exim.gov, asm-au.com
ConfirmedQueensland Government, Delivering Queensland’s Critical Minerals Future 2026-30, 29 Jul 2026; ministerial statement on the Resources Common User Facility, 23 Oct 2026. qld.gov.au, statements.qld.gov.au
ConfirmedNSW Government, Critical Minerals and High-Tech Metals Strategy page (Critical Minerals Royalty Deferral Scheme). nsw.gov.au
ConfirmedWA Government, Battery and Critical Minerals Strategy 2024-2030; Invest and Trade WA, Investment Attraction Fund. wa.gov.au (strategy), wa.gov.au (fund)
ConfirmedWhite House, fact sheet on the Australia deals, 20 Oct 2025; EXIM, Supply Chain Resiliency Initiative; Congress.gov, S.3772 (EXIM renewal), no action since 4 Feb 2026. whitehouse.gov, exim.gov, congress.gov
ReportedMINING.COM, Sunrise Energy Metals takes its Syerston scandium investment decision with a conditional US Office of Strategic Capital loan offer, 2 Nov 2026. mining.com
ConfirmedUS International Development Finance Corporation, “DFC secures expanded authorities with FY26 NDAA signed into law”, Dec 2025. dfc.gov

Considerations and warning signs

ConfirmedAVZ Minerals, general update, 29 Sep 2026; Reuters, “Zijin starts Congo lithium exports to China, sources say”, 16 Jul 2026 (Reported). avzminerals.com.au, reuters.com
ConfirmedResolute Mining, December 2024 quarterly activities report, 30 Jan 2025; Reuters, 21 Nov 2024. rml.com.au, reuters.com
ConfirmedGold Fields, Damang release, 22 Apr 2025; Reuters, 7 Apr 2026 (Reported). goldfields.com, reuters.com
ConfirmedDepartment of Defence, Defence Industry Security Program eligibility and suitability; Defence Security Principles Framework, Principle 16 (public), version 8, 29 Jan 2026. defence.gov.au, defence.gov.au (Principle 16)
ConfirmedUS State Department, senior officials on the posture of US Embassy Kyiv, 23 Jan 2022; US Embassy Baghdad, ordered departure advisory, Jun 2025; Reuters, 13 Jun 2025. state.gov, usembassy.gov, reuters.com
ConfirmedASX, Guidance Note 8, “Continuous disclosure: Listing Rules 3.1 to 3.1B”. asx.com.au
ReportedinvestingLive, citing the Financial Times, on US pressure over China’s rare-earth commitments and the APEC meeting in Shenzhen, 6 Nov 2026. investinglive.com

The scenario

Why governments are paying

Who the money is for

Where China sits

The F-35 test

The rules

The money

Policy risk

The hit list

Capacity and cash

Where by-products pay

Who sells one today

Being built, or just starting

Where to start

The tax incentive’s by-product test

Eight questions before you chase a by-product

Six considerations

1Fuel

2Shipping and ports

3Your buyers and the rules

4Power, telecoms and cyber

5Partners and host governments

6Warning signs

Two companies, same Monday

What to do this quarter

Dates to watch

Sources

The scenario

Why governments are paying

By-products

The hit list

Considerations and warning signs